Unless he runs the worst local campaign in history, Kevin McCarty gets elected mayor in November. No need to wait weeks for updated vote tabulations. We’re talking landslide.
McCarty drew the perfect opponent in Flojaune Cofer. Inexperienced, impulsive and far more progressive than any mayoral candidate in city history, Cofer has kicked goals into her own net since her campaign started.
Soon after Cofer submitted candidacy paperwork, the city discovered she violated campaign finance laws. City Council members generously decided the rules were too confusing and kept her on the ballot.
From there, Cofer supported homeless camps in parks, endorsed proposals to fire city workers and replace them with contractors, suggested city cops are racists and called Police Chief Kathy Lester a liar.
Over the next two months, she’ll continue to stumble as she justifies her views on tent encampments, the budget deficit and social justice for the 71% of voters who rejected her in the March primary.
Two words describe what Cofer needs to win: A miracle.
This leaves McCarty, a contemplative, professional politician with 20 years of experience with the City Council and state Assembly, in a glide path to replace Darrell Steinberg.
A political consultant could manage McCarty’s campaign in their spare time. Emphasize his competency. Highlight his track record. Present reasonable solutions. Unify neighborhood and business coalitions. Game over.
But not quite. Campaign tactics mandate that McCarty and surrogates define Cofer in ways she doesn’t like—a challenge she avoided in the primary.
Cofer enjoyed a free ride in the March election. She coasted without review or ridicule from her opponents. The November runoff tests how Cofer responds to criticism. As Mike Tyson said, “Everybody has a plan until they get hit.”
In the primary, three mayoral prospects—all seasoned politicians—hoped to draw Cofer into the November finale. McCarty, Dr. Richard Pan and Steve Hansen saw Cofer as their best opponent in a runoff.
They didn’t challenge Cofer’s bizarre ideas about turning parks into homeless camps, balancing the budget with vendors and defunding police. They just let her talk.
This high-road strategy backfired on Pan and Hansen. Most primary voters split their selections among the three experienced pols. Cofer picked up the rest.
McCarty squeaked into second place. Cofer attracted an antiestablishment mandate of about 29%.
Now comes the main event.
After McCarty and his allies define their opponent and educate the electorate, Cofer can expect to finish in November with a vote count of around 40%. A respectable performance by a rookie from deep left field.
But here’s a word of caution. Having watched Sacramento mayor races since 1983, when Anne Rudin beat Ross Relles by 908 votes, I think the city benefits if McCarty and Cofer minimize the bickering and agree on two or three principles.
How refreshing the mayor’s race will be if the candidates stand together and outline some solutions for homelessness and budget deficits.
No arguing over who has the best plan. No ridicule. Instead, a handshake to work together, win or lose. Inspire diverse constituencies and support serious strategies to remove tent encampments and restrain municipal spending. Everybody wins.
Unfortunately, Cofer’s likely too inexperienced and radical for fellowship.
From distant perspectives, the candidates seem similar. Two liberal Democrats. But look deeper. Cofer swims in progressive ideology. McCarty tiptoes around the edges.
McCarty learned years ago a successful politician knows how to count votes. McCarty counted votes in the state Legislature and City Hall.
As mayor, he’ll need five votes to do anything. Sounds easy. But counting gets complicated when politics, policies and special interests collide. This is all news to Cofer.
In 1986, after Anne Rudin settled into her first term, she considered the balancing act needed by mayors. She said, “I’m trying to be someone who is looking out for (the public’s) interests. But I realize I can’t represent everyone.”
McCarty knows what Rudin meant. I can almost hear Cofer say, “Anne who?”
R.E. Graswich can be reached at regraswich@icloud.com. Follow us on Facebook and Instagram: @insidesacramento.
